St. Louis private schools face a demographic crisis. AI education might be the answer.

Here’s a fact that should keep every private school administrator in St. Louis awake at night: the region is experiencing its first-ever natural population decline. More people are dying than being born. This has never happened before in St. Louis history.

The pool of students isn’t shrinking slowly. It’s accelerating downward.

By 2029, regional births are projected to fall below 20,000 annually. That’s down from 28,149 in 2023. Every school in the metro - public, private, Catholic, independent - will be fighting over fewer students.

In discussions we’ve had with school administrators across the region, one question keeps coming up: how do we differentiate? How do we give parents a reason to choose us when they have so many options?

I think AI literacy education might be part of the answer. Not the whole answer. But a significant part.

The numbers are worse than you think

Let’s talk about what’s already happened, not just what’s coming.

Catholic schools in the Archdiocese of St. Louis have seen enrollment drop 57.5% since 2001. Think about that. More than half the students. Gone. The K-8 population went from roughly 40,000 to 19,000 in just over two decades.

Three schools closed in 2023-2024 due to low enrollment: Good Shepherd, St. Mark, St. Rose. More followed. The Archdiocese’s “All Things New” initiative revealed that 82 grade schools were operating below 65% capacity, with parishes subsidizing an average deficit of $600,000 per school annually.

That’s not sustainable.

Independent schools have fared better nationally - up 8% between 2018 and 2021, according to EdChoice research. But here’s the catch: Missouri doesn’t track private school enrollment data. We’re flying blind on regional numbers.

What we do know is the demographic foundation is crumbling. SLU demographer Ness Sándoval put it bluntly: “This is the first time in St. Louis’ history that it’s in a state of natural population decline.” The 15-county region is now the 9th oldest metro in the country. Young families are leaving for other cities with better housing options.

What parents actually want (and will pay for)

When parents choose private schools, they’re buying peace of mind and preparation. EdChoice’s 2024 survey found that 50% prioritize safety, 47% prioritize academic quality. No surprises there.

But here’s what’s changing. Parents increasingly ask: will this school prepare my child for a changing world?

That’s the question.

When researchers at the Center on Reinventing Public Education surveyed parents about AI in education, they found a striking split by education level. Among parents with a bachelor’s degree or higher - the exact demographic private schools depend on - 62% want schools to teach AI literacy. 68% believe AI skills will give their children a job market advantage.

Parents without college degrees? Only 31% and 35% respectively.

Your target market cares about AI education. Deeply. They see what’s coming in the workforce.

Elite schools aren’t waiting

While most schools debate whether to ban ChatGPT, elite private schools are teaching students to build with AI.

At Phillips Exeter Academy, students create AI models as senior projects. They take ethics seminars debating algorithmic bias. One student created an entire podcast series exploring AI’s societal impact.

Nueva School in California charges $55,000 tuition. Students there collaborate with AI tutors and create machine learning projects. They learn to code alongside ChatGPT, not in spite of it.

Alpha Schools is expanding across eight states with a radical model: two hours of AI-personalized academics, then real-world skill development the rest of the day. Their teachers - they call them “guides” - earn $100,000+ to facilitate learning rather than lecture.

See the pattern?

These schools aren’t just allowing AI. They’re making it central to their educational mission. Their graduates will arrive at college and eventually the workforce with years of hands-on AI experience. Students from schools that banned or ignored AI will be at a disadvantage.

Research from The Sutton Trust found that private schools are three times more likely than public schools to have a clear AI strategy. That gap represents both an opportunity and a warning.

The workforce your students will enter

Here’s where the math gets uncomfortable for any school not teaching AI literacy.

The World Economic Forum’s 2025 Future of Jobs Report projects AI will displace 92 million jobs while creating 170 million new ones. Net gain: 78 million jobs. But they require different skills. By 2030, 59% of the global workforce will need retraining.

PwC’s AI Jobs Barometer found something even more striking: demand for AI fluency - the ability to use and manage AI tools - has increased seven times in just two years. Sevenfold.

Entry-level jobs are especially vulnerable. Students graduating without AI literacy will face a fundamentally different labor market than any generation before them.

In our experience working with schools, this is the argument that resonates with boards. Not the technology itself. The workforce preparation. The question isn’t whether students should learn about AI. It’s whether your school will teach them or leave them to figure it out alone.

What this actually costs

The implementation numbers are more reasonable than most administrators expect.

Year one: $10,000-20,000 per school. That covers teacher professional development and curriculum adoption. Year two: $5,000-10,000 for expansion. Year three onward: roughly $5,000 for ongoing updates.

Free frameworks exist. The AI4K12 initiative, funded by the National Science Foundation, provides curriculum resources at no cost. Google Teachable Machine is free. MIT’s AI curriculum materials are free. You don’t need expensive tools to teach AI literacy. You need teachers who understand it.

Here’s the ROI calculation that matters: Missouri’s average private school tuition runs about $13,000 per year. If AI education helps you retain two or three families who might have left - or attracts two or three families who were looking for something different - you’ve covered your costs.

What’s the cost of not differentiating? In a shrinking market, probably higher.

The window is closing

Chicago Public Schools plans full AI integration for 2025-2026. Wichita’s been working on AI literacy since 2022. Indiana launched pilot grants. Connecticut is running state-level pilots.

Most of these programs focus on teacher tools and approved student applications. That’s fine for public districts. But private schools can go further. Teach students to build and evaluate, not just consume. Position your graduates as creators, not just users.

St. Louis private schools have a window to establish regional leadership in AI education before the competition catches up. The demographic headwinds aren’t going away. The question is whether you’ll ride them or fight them.

The schools that thrive won’t be the ones with the best facilities or the longest traditions. They’ll be the ones that convinced parents their children would be ready for what comes next.

Is yours one of them?